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11/21/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wagering on NFL road favorites has always been a risky proposition. Even in Weeks 6 through 8 of the current season, seven of the 11 away betting choices failed to cover the spread, and interestingly enough, every single underdog that provided an ATS victory also won the game outright.
However, a strange twist has recently changed the landscape of home field advantage in professional football, and that's the impressive current run by away favorites. For the first three weeks of November, road betting choices have ripped off 10 against the spread victories in 13 tries for an outstanding 77% winning percentage.
More impressive than that is the fact those numbers are an even better 7-1 and 88% in the last two weeks alone. The only club to fail was the Eagles, who finished in a 13-13 tie with the Bengals as nine-point favorites.
If away favorites were able to turn the tide in November, could the same be said for the home favorites? Not really. In fact, the opposite has occurred, as the road underdogs have ruled the land.
Going back to the same three weeks (6 through 8) that the road betting choices finished 4-7 ATS, home favorites were an even 50% at 15-15. In addition, seven of those preferred 15 teams lost the game outright.
However, the first three weeks of November have been a boon to those bettors who have taken shots against the hometown betting choice.
Week 9 began the turnover process with a 7-2 ATS mark for away underdogs, including four outright road wins. The early games produced a 4-1 record, with the only loss coming in Minnesota where the 5.5-point-favored Vikings knocked off the Texans, 28-21.
The following week was more of the same, as only three of 11 home favorites were able to cover the spread, with another four road underdogs winning straight up. That last number could have been even higher but Seattle, Green Bay and Kansas City all lost SU by a combined four points.
Those that had picked up on this trend prior to this past weekend were licking their chops, as 11 more home teams were favored in Week 11.
The overall numbers dipped from the previous two weeks, but the road underdog still came through in seven of the 11 games played. The onslaught began on Thursday evening when the Jets went into New England as three-point underdogs, only to walk off with the 34-31 victory.
This past Monday provided another easy score as the Browns, who were getting 5.5-points from Buffalo, won the game outright, 29-27. In between, the Broncos, Raiders, Texans, Lions, and Chargers all proved victorious plus the points.
To recap, road underdogs have not only won 11 of the 31 games outright the past three weeks, they've covered 22 of them for a winning percentage of 71%. Not quite at the 77% ATS record of road favorites during the same time span, but still good enough to supplement one's income.
TWO MORE HEAVY UNDERDOGS PREVAIL ATS
While on the subject of underdogs, it's hard not to notice how well double- digit dogs are doing after going two for two last Sunday.
Oakland, a 10-point underdog at Miami, led the Dolphins inside the final minute of play only to see Dan Carpenter win the game for Miami with a 38-yard field goal with 38 seconds left on the clock. Still, a two-point loss is golden when getting 10.
Detroit, a two-touchdown underdog at Carolina, came through with a nine-point defeat in Charlotte. The Panthers needed a missed two-point try by Detroit along with a touchdown of their own inside the final five minutes to secure the straight-up victory.
Double-digit underdogs are now 15-3 ATS for an unheard of winning percentage of 83% after Cincinnati fell to Pittsburgh on Thursday evening. There is still one more opportunity to cash out this Sunday, as San Francisco is a 10-point dog at Dallas.
<< Wild reassign Schaefer to Houston
St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Wild reassigned goaltender Nolan
Schaefer to the Houston Aeros of the American Hockey League. Schaefer was
recalled Tuesday on an emergency basis and did not play a game with the NHL
club.
<< Nashville reassigns rookie forwards to Milwaukee
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nashville Predators reassigned rookie
forwards Patric Hornqvist and Ryan Jones to the Milwaukee Admirals of the
American Hockey League.
Jones has three goals and three assists in 15 games
<< Penguins loan Cashman to Wheeling
Wilkes-Barre, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins have
loaned defenseman Reid Cashman to their ECHL affiliate, the Wheeling Nailers.
Cashman, 25, appeared in four games with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton this season,
recor
<< AHL announces rescheduled game
Springfield, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The American Hockey League game between the
Springfield Falcons and the Worcester Sharks, originally scheduled for Nov.
15, has been rescheduled for Dec. 10 at the DCU Center in Worcester, Mass, the
league
Win-Hungry Chiefs, Bills, Face Off at Arrowhead >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A hint of desperation will be in the air at Arrowhead
Stadium, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills - two teams in dire need
of a victory - will slug it out in a quest for a long-overdue trip to the left
column of the
Can Redskins Halt Slide In Seattle? >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Back-to-back losses for the first time this year have the
Washington Redskins fading in the NFC playoff picture. Currently holding the
final Wild Card slot in the conference, Washington heads across the country
this weekend t
Lions Look to Catch Bucs Napping >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With three division games looming in the distance, the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are doing their best not to look past the Detroit Lions.
With Detroit winless in 10 games this year, that figures to be easier said
then done.
Ta
Romo, Cowboys, Back Home vs. Niners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been six weeks since fans of the Dallas Cowboys have
watched quarterback Tony Romo take the playing field at Texas Stadium.
Needless to say, his presence in Sunday's Week 12 affair against the San
Francisco 49ers will
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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